Is Iran trading missiles for Russian cereals and wheat?

After a decade of steady decline, traffic fatalities began to rise again in the Iranian year 2021, with over 20,000 deaths reported in the last Iranian calendar year 2023 (March 21, 2023 – March 19, 2024).

Citing data from the ILMO, Etemad newspaper reported that around 20 years ago, the annual death toll from road accidents approached 28,000. Due to various interventions, this number was reduced to approximately 16,000 by 2020. However, the report noted that since 2021, traffic fatalities have been rising once more, now surpassing 20,000, a figure not seen since 2011, breaking a 12-year record.

Despite existing laws aimed at reducing traffic deaths, Etemad noted that the Iranian government had committed to reducing road fatalities by 10% annually. This goal, had it been met, would have brought the number of deaths down to fewer than 10,000 per year. However, the rising numbers have shown that this target has not been achieved.

On Saturday, Taymour Hosseini, the Chief of Iran’s Traffic Police, reported that last week, there were 264 fatal accidents in the country, resulting in 314 deaths at the scene. In addition, 8,156 injury-related accidents were recorded, with speeding, driver inattention, and loss of vehicle control identified as the primary causes.

Hosseini did not mention other widely referenced factors such as the poor quality of domestically manufactured vehicles and inadequate road conditions, which many experts cite as key contributors to Iran's high rate of road fatalities.

In 2022, Kamal Hadianfar, the former Chief of Traffic Police, acknowledged that there were 5,200 high-risk accident spots across the country, with 877 of them considered especially dangerous and in need of urgent improvement.

A substantial portion of Iran's road fatalities has been attributed to the quality of vehicles and the state of the country's roads. Around 90% of motorcycles and 40% of passenger cars are considered outdated, while parts of the public transportation fleet also suffer from wear and tear.

The ongoing rise in fatalities has raised concerns over the effectiveness of safety measures and road infrastructure improvements. Official estimates suggest that the economic impact of road accidents accounts for between 2% and 7% of Iran's GDP.

Experts warn that given the current upward trend in fatalities, the figure could increase further if urgent action is not taken.

The revealing insight comes from a new survey conducted by a department affiliated with the Ministry of Culture, published by the pro-reform daily Ham-Mihan on Sunday.

The results, part of the Fourth Wave of the National Survey on Values and Attitudes of Iranians, offer a rare glimpse into public sentiment in a system that often avoids transparency about the true depth of dissatisfaction among its citizens.

Conducted in November 2023 by the Office of National Plans of the Research Institute of Culture, Art, and Communications, the survey polled 15,878 Iranians over the age of 51 across 15 provinces.

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While the full survey results have not yet been made public, sections of the data have been released to researchers and are slowly being published. According to Ham-Mihan, 92% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the country’s current trajectory, with about one-third of them going so far as to state that “the country’s situation is beyond repair.”

This figure comes as no surprise in a country that is in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the founding of the Islamic Republic, international isolation, and rising authoritarianism.

Among the most pressing issues identified by respondents were inflation and high prices (81.9%), unemployment (47.9%), addiction (26.9%), corruption (13.1%), housing shortages (12.1%), and, notably, the issue of the hijab (11.9%).

The prominence of the hijab issue, which has risen to become the sixth most important concern, reflects a dramatic shift in public sentiment following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 while in the custody of the morality police.

Protests that erupted after her death challenged the Islamic Republic’s dress codes and have since shifted the national debate on personal freedoms, particularly for women.

The survey also underscores the growing sense of insecurity among Iranians, with 54.8% of respondents stating that their property and belongings are not safe. Women, in particular, expressed concerns about safety, with 14% stating they feel "very little" safety in public, and 21.5% indicating they feel "somewhat unsafe."

Sociologists warn that this overwhelming sense of hopelessness could lead to greater unrest. Speaking to Ham-Mihan, sociologist Simin Kazemi pointed out the fact that 60% of eligible voters did not participate in the first round of the 2024 presidential election, a sign of widespread political disillusionment.

“If the new government fails to seize this opportunity and address the concerns, growing dissatisfaction could spiral into political and social crises larger than anything we’ve seen before,” Kazemi said.

The outlook painted by the survey echoes past studies, including a 2022 poll by the Gamaan Institute, which found that 81% of respondents inside Iran wanted an end to the Islamic Republic altogether. Similarly, a 2021 survey by the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) revealed that 59% of Iranians had no hope for the future of their country.

He said Iran's leaders "have turned Iran into a playing card" in the war on Ukraine as Iran already faces global sanctions for providing drones to Russia used in civilian areas of Ukraine.

The outspoken former MP said the latest debacle was part of a "dirty game" as Iran is dragged further into global conflict and sanctions which have led to the country's worst economic crisis since the founding of the Islamic Republic.

"It will continue until the dictator [Putin] leaves the quagmire," he blasted.

The former chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, he is now a faculty member of Allameh Tabatabaei University. He has made no secret of his opposition to the government's policies which continue to lead the country closer to conflict with global powers such as the US.

The latest arms sales to Russia were confirmed by an Iranian lawmaker who denied that the delivery of ballistic missiles would risk heavy implications for Iran, also sanctioned for human rights abuses at home and its nuclear weapons program. Iran's supply of kamikaze drones to Russia since 2022 has already angered Western powers that have imposed sanctions against Iranian entities and individuals.

Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani justified it by saying Iran has to subsequently "barter for our needs, including importing soybeans and wheat. Part of the barter involves sending missiles, and another part involves sending military drones to Russia."

When asked whether sending ballistic missiles to Russia might lead to further sanctions or trigger the so-called "snapback" mechanism against Iran, the member of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee replied, "It can't get any worse than it already is. We give missiles to [our proxies] Hezbollah, Hamas, and Hashd al-Shaabi, so why not to Russia?"

On Sunday, Nasser Kanaani, the spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, once again denied being an ally to Russia in its war in Ukraine, saying "the Islamic Republic has never been part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict."

He said that "military cooperation between the Islamic Republic and Russia dates back well before the start of the Ukraine war."

According to Gholamhossein Karbaschi, former Tehran mayor and secretary-general of the centrist Executives of Construction Party, hardliners, reformists, and even the current Pezeshkian administration risk losing public trust unless Pezeshkian fulfills key promises. Karbaschi emphasized that Pezeshkian needs to show he is committed to changes in social media and hijab restrictions, and the release of protest leaders, as he has publicly pledged, in order to distinguish his government and gain credibility.

On foreign policy, Karbaschi emphasized that the public desires leaders to avoid creating tensions and to work on reducing existing ones. He stressed that easing relations, even with the United States, should be a fundamental principle of Iran's foreign policy, advocating for a more pragmatic and conciliatory approach to international relations.

Karbaschi also said in his interview with "reformist" Didar News: "If Pezeshkian fails to deliver, all hope will go out the window," Karbaschi warned. He added that in the recent presidential election, people were fed up by ongoing domestic and foreign policy issues, alongside economic crises. Despite their frustration, it was clear they were ready for change. However, due to past restrictions on candidates, many had lost faith in the electoral process. Karbaschi stressed that Pezeshkian must seize this opportunity to enact meaningful reforms to restore public trust.

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He pointed out that the crackdown on women defying the hijab, the poisoning of schoolchildren—allegedly orchestrated by hardline elements—along with worsening social issues and increasing economic hardship, have intensified the public’s demand for change. The stalemate in Iran’s foreign relations has further fueled this unrest. Karbaschi added that the public's reluctance to participate in recent elections reflects their disappointment with all political factions, including the "reformists," whose performance has contributed to widespread disillusionment with the political process.

During this week, Pezeshkian has said that he believes solving the country's economic problems needs an "economic surgery." However, some economists have expressed doubts that the idea which is reminiscent of an expression used by former President Ebrahim Raisi could be a prelude to a new round of price rises.

Meanwhile, National Development Fund Chief Mehdi Ghazanfari quoted Pezeshkian as having said that he will not allow the underprivileged to be crushed under the pressure of any economic reforms. He further warned the President that a less painful road to development is feasible only through oil exports, but did not offer any further explanation.

Discussing ways to address Iran's cultural and economic issues, Pezeshkian recently called for encouraging Iranian expatriates to invest in the country. "We should assure Iranians living abroad that they won’t face harm if they return to Iran," he said. However, social media users quickly questioned why this attitude doesn't start with Iranians already living in the country, suggesting that offering better internet access and social media freedoms would be a good first step in improving the domestic situation.

Karbaschi stated that Pezeshkian may not be able to solve all the problems, but he needs to show that he is doing his best. This will also encourage the people to take part in future elections.

When asked about Pezeshkian's chances of success, Karbaschi noted, "I believe he made those promises based on agreements with key individuals. However, if he fails to fulfill them—such as lifting internet filtering—it will damage his credibility, especially since internet access is crucial to many people's livelihoods." Karbaschi added that failing to deliver on these promises would not only harm public trust in the government but also further diminish hope for the future.

French police sources told AFP that Abdelkrim S., 34, and his partner Sabrina B., 33, were detained on May 4, accused of conspiring with a terrorist organization. The pair now sit in pre-trial detention as part of an investigation known as "Marco Polo," a case that underscores the Iranian government’s renewed use of terror tactics on European soil.

According to a report by France’s General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI), consulted by AFP, Iran has ramped up its policy of targeted killings since 2015. The DGSI highlighted how the threat has intensified in the context of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.

Iran is targeting civilians to spread fear among Europe’s Jewish and Israeli communities, while simultaneously intimidating its political opposition abroad.

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Tehran is outsourcing its operations to criminal networks, Iranian intelligence agencies having recruited criminals including drug lords to carry out such attacks.

Abdelkrim S., who has a criminal record, was the alleged point-man for an Iranian-sponsored cell. He was previously sentenced to 10 years for a killing in Marseille but was released on probation in July 2023.

French authorities believe he quickly became the linchpin in a terrorist network, tasked with planning violence in both France and Germany. His recruitment by an Iranian-linked drug trafficker in Lyon—who reportedly traveled to Iran in May—underscores Tehran’s use of criminal intermediaries to execute its deadly missions.

Among the cell's plans were attacks on several individuals, including a former employee of an Israeli security firm and three of his colleagues living in the Paris suburbs.

The plot also extended beyond France, with three Israeli-German citizens residing in Munich and Berlin marked as targets. French investigators revealed that despite being on probation, Abdelkrim S. made multiple trips to Germany, including visits to Berlin with his wife, purportedly for "scouting" purposes. He denied the charges, claiming he was merely running errands.

The plot did not end with personal attacks. French authorities have also linked the cell to a scheme to burn down four Israeli-owned businesses in southern France between late December 2023 and early January 2024. Although Abdelkrim S. has rejected the accusations, investigators are confident in his involvement. His defense, that he was only a middleman on the Telegram messaging app for an insurance scam, seems weak in the face of mounting evidence.

The case is far from isolated. As Der Spiegel reported on Thursday, security agencies across Europe have thwarted multiple Iranian-backed terrorist plots this year. Operations have been foiled in multiple European nations including those targeting Jewish and Israeli businesses and communities in Germany and France, in addition to countries such as Sweden and Belgium.

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In August, Iran International reported on operations by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia group backed by Iran’s Quds Force, targeting Jewish centers in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Earlier this year, Israeli and Swedish intelligence agencies warned of Tehran's use of criminal networks as terrorist proxies in Europe, highlighting a broader pattern of state-sanctioned violence.

In May, Iran International reported that Israeli and Swedish intelligence agencies had warned about the Islamic Republic's use of criminal networks as terrorist proxies in Europe to carry out a series of attacks on Israeli embassies in Europe.

Last year, the US named Iran as the world's number one state sponsor of terrorism.