Amputations in Iran hit record high, stoking international criticism

"The rapid withdrawal of the army was unexpected. All information had been shared in advance. The Syrian army failed to resist, which was largely psychological—no one believed it would happen," he said.

Araghchi said that joint Iranian intelligence had thoroughly assessed the situation, Iran sharing warnings about opposition movements in Idlib with the Syrian government. However, he stopped short of explaining why Iranian forces, a key Assad ally, did not intervene to counter the rapid developments.

“What was surprising was, first, the Syrian army's inability to confront the situation, and second, the rapid pace of developments,” he added.

Araghchi said that while Tehran had a role in the 2017 Astana process - an initiative to build dialogue with opposition groups co-chaired with Russia and Turkey - direct military intervention was not part of Iran’s responsibilities in spite of the country having helped prop up the Assad government for over a decade.

The foreign minister acknowledged Assad’s own shock, saying, “Even Bashar al-Assad himself was surprised by the performance of his army. It was evident there was no accurate analysis within Syria.”

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Araghchi also addressed Iran's frustration with recent developments undermining the Astana agreements. “One of the objectives of Astana was to help the government and opposition engage in dialogue. While we made slow progress in this direction, it did not proceed well because Assad’s government showed little flexibility,” he said, in a rare criticism of the decades-long president.

On Saturday, Araghchi participated in the Astana Meeting in Doha, where he met with the Emir of Qatar and other Arab officials.

For now, the situation remains unclear as to Iran's future role in the country, Iran's Supreme Leader set to address the issue in a speech on Wednesday. Ahmad Naderi, a member of the Iranian parliament, said: “Iran's future approach towards Syria depends on the behavior of those who have taken power in the country.”

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the rapid fall of the Syrian government a sign of the weakening of both Moscow and Tehran, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken linked the collapse to Assad’s refusal to engage politically.

Long-time President Bashar al Assad fled the country at the weekend, leaving a vacuum in the country after both Iran and Russia had since 2011’s civil war, supported.

Reuters reported that talks had begun in an attempt to "prevent a hostile trajectory" between the countries after a rapid takeover saw the 50-year Assad family rule collapse in days.

The senior official told Reuters that Iran's clerical rulers, facing the loss of an important ally in Damascus and the return of Donald Trump to the white House in January, were open to engaging with Syria's new leaders.

Iran had multiple military bases across Syria, having controlled airports and sea ports which have been a key smuggling route to Iran’s military allies in the region, including its largest, Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is not clear if there is an Iranian presence left in Assad's traditional bastion, the Alawite coastal regions.

Syria was also a location for Iran’s oil sales amid global sanctions, allowing the Islamic Republic to circumvent the crippling economic grip imposed by the US and other nations.

"This engagement is key to stabilize ties and avoiding further regional tensions," the official said.

The fall of the Assad government came after the unification of multiple Sunni militia forces, led by Hay'at Tahrir al Sham, a former al Qaeda ally.

However, it is led by Muhammad al Jolani who, though a Sunni, is known to share Iran's hatred of Israel. His grandfather was displaced to Syria from the now Israeli occupied Golan Heights in 1967.

In a rare Western media interview in 2021 with PBS Frontline, he said he was radicalized by the second intifada in 2000, one of the bloodiest periods in the Palestine-Israel conflict.

Just like Iran's backing of Gaza-based Hamas, the alliance would not be the first time Iran had aligned with Sunni militants in a bid to erase its archenemy, Israel.

“I was 17 or 18 years old at the time, and I started thinking about how I could fulfil my duties, defending a people who are oppressed by occupiers and invaders,” he said at the time.

It is not only Iran which is worried about the new transition, in spite of the global relief of the fall of a man known as a brutal dictator, and whose rule saw the deaths of at least 300,000 civilians, including hundreds in a chemical weapons attack in 2013.

The US carried out dozens of targeted airstrikes on ISIS members and facilities as fears of a resurgence of extremism remained a priority.

“There should be no doubt – we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” CENTCOM Commander General Michael Erik Kurilla said in a statement.

“All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.”

Initially set to deliver approximately 750,000 barrels of Iranian crude to Syria, the Suezmax tanker LOTUS (IMO 9203784) is now returning to Iran, as reported by Tanker Trackers.

Iran has been providing Assad's government with free oil, as well as financial and military assistance throughout the country's civil war. According to Iranian politicians, the Assad government owed Iran between $30-50 billion.

This follows anticipated fuel shortages in Syria, likely to worsen with the fall of Iran's allied government and the takeover by insurgent groups, who stormed the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Sunday.

According to data received by Iran International from Kepler, a leading provider of technology-led insights into energy and shipping markets, Iran has been sending between 60,000 and 70,000 barrels of oil to Syria daily.

Anti-Assad rebels view Iran as a supporter of a regime that suppressed protests and targeted opponents with all available military means during the 13-year civil war. Assad's fall and the withdrawal of Iranian forces would disrupt Tehran's ability to use Syria as a strategic transit route for transferring weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah and as a military base.

Syria served as a critical corridor for the Islamic Republic, linking Tehran to the Mediterranean in what was often referred to as Tehran's "Shiite Crescent." With Assad's fall, Iran's regional influence is expected to weaken further, particularly following significant Israeli blows against Hezbollah.

“This will probably embolden the Trump Administration to take a tough stance against Iran, in particular by constraining their oil exports. Inflicting economic pain on the regime would seem more likely to yield results now that the Iranians have seen their investment in Syria prove wasted,” wrote Forbes on Sunday.

Iran’s outpost in Syria has collapsed, Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding told Iran International, upending Iran's military strategy abroad so thoroughly that it may inspire opponents at home to oust the 45-year-old Islamic Republic.

“The Iranians have taken a huge hit here,” he told Iran International. “It’s certainly ripped up that important [smuggling] corridor it relied on, from Iran to the Mediterranean. Syria now will be a country not in Iran’s control. Iran will lose a lot of assets they’ve invested in, properties they took over won’t remain Iranian.”

He said that as a result of the rapid fall of Syria in less than a week, after being in the hands of the Assad family for five decades, it could also bode well for a full overthrow of the government in Iran, which has been growing ever weaker since the uprising of 2022.

“It will be inspiring many people across the region to see what Syria has done and that will be unnerving for the Iranian regime,” not least, with the weakening of Iran-backed allies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, leaving Iran’s archenemy Israel now in a much stronger position.

“The borders of Syria are certainly not in the hands of the Assad regime now," he dais and highlighted that Kurds control the borders with Iraq. "If Iran wanted to smuggle weapons and fighters into Syria, the Iraqi border is very important. Iran will be reassessing its strategies here and with a Trump administration coming, who knows. It faces some stark choices."

Arash Azizi, a visiting fellow at Boston University’s Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, said he agrees.

"The fall of Assad is the most important blow the Iranian regime has suffered in years," he told Iran International. "It signals the collapse of its 'Axis of Resistance' [military allies across the region] which has been the mainstay of Khamenei’s policy during most of his decades-long term as Supreme Leader," he added.

Iran has for decades supported groups in countries including Yemen, Palestine, Lebanon and Syria.

"Khamenei already had problems saving face given the massive blows the Axis received in the last year but this leaves him further humiliated and isolated," he said, referring to the blows dealt to Iran's largest proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza.

After the Hamas invasion of October 7 last year, Israel has been engaged in its longest ever conflict with the Iran-backed group, while Hezbollah on Israel's northern border attacked on a second front, with others from Yemen, Iraq, Syria and the West Bank.

Israel has killed huge swathes of Hezbollah's leadership, including long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, and according to the Israeli military, taken it back decades. In Gaza, Hamas has also been dealt a huge blow, with the majority of its battalions and infrastructure across the strip destroyed.

Internally, it will also hurt Tehran, said Azizi, in addition to the risks it now faces from the incoming Trump presidency, who has vowed a "maximum pressure" approach to Iran and its allies.

"The fall of Assad shows the weakness of the Iranian regime and will be definitely a boost for the regime’s opponents. It will inspire them to take it on especially as the regime is hemmed in from other sides too: the return of Trump to White House will likely bring renewed pressure on it and Israel is also strengthened," he explained.

"But it will also have effects on the regime’s internal composition. Those factions who seek a deal with the West and want Iran to step back from some of its aggressive policies will see a boost. They will try to get a deal with Trump at any price that might get them some respite."

However, Azizi argued the opposition to the Islamic Republic must become better organized to capitalize on the changing landscape for the impact to be truly felt at home.

"The Iranian opposition could have used this as an excellent opportunity to act against the regime but it’s extremely disorganized and thus not able to," he said. "Its hope will rest on spontaneous movements from the Iranian people — which can never be predicted but is always possible."

Ehud Yaari, an Israeli Lafer International Fellow at The Washington Institute, wrote on Sunday that while concerns persist about weapons such as chemical arms, long-range rockets, and surface-to-surface missiles falling into extremist hands, it is “time to celebrate” the downfall of the Assad dynasty, which ruled for over 50 years.

He said the need to reinforce the Druze communities on Israel's northern border is vital, and that is now recognized by the Israeli government.

“The concerns about chemical weapons and heavy missiles falling into the hands of the rebels are certainly justified, but let us remember that there is a huge distance between seizing chemical materials and the ability and, of course, the desire to use them,” he wrote in his column for Channel 12.

“The rebel leaders already announced this morning that they are ready to help international organizations dismantle the chemical weapons that Assad has accumulated and announced that in any case they have no intention of using them."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he had ordered the Israeli military to "seize" the demilitarized zone that lies between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, saying the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria “has collapsed”.

”We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border,” the Israeli prime minister said after referring to the ousting of Iran-allied Bashar al-Assad as a “historic day”.

The Israeli military announced the deployment of troops on Sunday morning, adding that the Israeli military is “not interfering with the internal events in Syria”, while the area is a key point to keep the country secure.

The UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) has been in place for over 50 years to monitor the 80km (50-mile) long strip of land 24 hours a day.

Since the October 7 Hamas attacks last year, the issue of cross-border incursions has become an ever-looming threat to Israel, which is on a state of high alert. Several areas around along the border were declared closed military zones on Sunday.

In a clear message to Syria, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sar released a statement Saturday night saying: “Over the past 24 hours, armed forces have entered the buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border with Israel. Among other actions, attacks were carried out against UNDOF forces in the area.

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“Israel is concerned about violations of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement between Israel and Syria, which also pose a threat to its security, the safety of its communities, and its citizens, particularly in the Golan Heights region. The State of Israel does not intervene in the internal conflict in Syria.”

According to Israel’s Mako, however, the Israeli military has resumed Operation Good Neighbor, a project set up in 2016 which saw both civilians and rebel militia such as Al Nusra Front treated in Israel’s field hospital near the border in a bid to maintain peace. Since then there have been more than 110 such operations carried out.

“The IDF provided aid to Syrians on the other side of the border for two primary reasons. Firstly, we have a moral imperative. We can’t stand by watching a severe humanitarian crisis without helping the innocent people stuck in the middle of the conflict. We also believe that the aid will ultimately create a less hostile environment across the border and that will lead to improved Israeli security,” a statement said.

Around 200,000 residents of the Hauran region of southwestern Syria were part of the program, including roughly 400 families living in tents near the Israel-Syria border. Others lived in villages or out in the open. Half of those receiving aid were children.

Over 4,000 people have so far been brought to Israel to receive treatment, including hundreds of children with further transfers of medicine, supplies, and equipment being sent across the border.

In addition to medical aid, the project has seen over 450,000 liters of fuel transferred for heating, operating water wells, and ovens in bakeries. A further seven generators, water pipes to rebuild Syrian infrastructure, and equipment for a temporary school in the region were transferred.

The Israeli military said it had also transferred 40 tons of flour to bakeries, 225 tons of food, 12,000 packages of baby formula, 1,800 packages of diapers, 12 tons of shoes, and 55 tons of cold weather clothing.

Six successive prime ministers in Israel have tried to broker a peace deal with Syria but as yet, it has remained elusive, Israel’s archenemy Iran deeply entrenched with the ruling Assad government.